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John Paulson Buys Mortgages After U.S. Drops TARP Purchases

2008-11-18T16:02:00.001-08:00

Nov. 18 (Bloomberg) -- John Paulson, the hedge-fund manager who generated sixfold returns last year with the help of bets against subprime mortgages, has started buying debt backed by home loans, investors said.

Bonds linked to U.S. residential mortgages fell last week after U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson abandoned plans to buy distressed securities using money from the $700 billion Trouble Asset Relief Program. The ABX-HE-PENAAA 07-2 index of credit-default swaps tied to AAA-rated securities has fallen 13 percent to 36.25 since the Treasury’s announcement on Nov. 12, according to Markit Group Ltd. That indicates the bonds might fetch about 36 cents on the dollar.

John Paulson, whose New York-based Paulson & Co. oversees $36 billion in assets, said at a conference in June that he sees “opportunities this year” to buy mortgage-backed debt. While he said it was “premature” to start buying, the ABX indexes have since fallen 35 percent.

“Paulson’s timing is typically very good,” said Louis Gargour, chief investment officer of LNG Capital LLP, a London- based hedge fund that invests in distressed credit markets. “Pulling the TARP program was the last straw for this market. Now that Paulson is buying others may say this is a great trade.”

Gargour said he isn’t buying residential securities for “technical” reasons, including the prospect for legislative changes to home-foreclosure rules in the U.S.

Armel Leslie, a spokesman for Paulson’s firm, declined to comment on purchase of residential-mortgage securities, which the Financial Times reported yesterday.

Hearing Testimony

Paulson, in an appearance Nov. 13 at a U.S. Congressional committee, said that the TARP program could be more effective by investing in companies rather than buying mortgage debt itself.

“I’m thinking we’ve probably got the wrong Paulson handing out the TARP money here,” Representative John Tierney, a Democrat from Massachusetts, said during the hearing. The two Paulsons aren’t related.

John Paulson, 52, corrected Representative Jim Cooper, a Tennessee Democrat, when he said the headline of the hearing was “Paulson versus Paulson.”

“I, in no way, want to be critical of Secretary Paulson,” he said. “He’s done a great deal for this country. He’s willing to change his position when the circumstances change.”

All of Paulson’s funds profited last year buying credit default swaps on mortgage assets, which are instruments that rise in value as the risk of default increases. Paulson told investors in November that he had increased his holdings of derivatives that gain in value when the chances of corporate credit defaults rise.

Paulson’s Advantage Plus fund has climbed 29 percent this year through October while many managers are enduring the worst year of their careers.

U.S. construction spending down slightly in Sept.

2008-11-03T11:50:00.002-08:00

WASHINGTON, Nov 3 (Reuters) - U.S. construction spending fell a smaller-than-expected 0.3 percent in September as weaker private home building and public construction outweighed a slight increase in private non-residential building, a Commerce Department report showed on Monday.

Analysts polled by Reuters ahead of the report were expecting a 0.8 percent decrease in construction spending in September. The figure for August was revised to a 0.3 percent increase, which was originally reported as unchanged.

Private residential construction fell 1.3 percent as did public construction, its sharpest drop in more than six months. Overall private construction rose 0.1 percent led by a 1.2 percent increase in non-residential building.

The annual rate of construction spending in September was $1.060 trillion.

The dollar trimmed gains along with markets early Monday after a separate report showed that U.S. factory activity shrank more sharply than expected in October.

Construction spending by the Federal government declined 7 percent, the sharpest since an 8.4 percent drop in February 2007 and the biggest drop among the sectors in the report.

Lawmakers are considering whether to expand spend on infrastructure projects as a way to give the ailing economy a boost.

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What’s Wrong With The Merrill Bonuses?

2008-11-03T11:50:00.001-08:00

We’ll forgive you if you were a bit confused by the story this morning about a “culture clash” between the Merrill Lynch brokers and Bank of America. Fortunately, we did some digging and found out what is really going on.

As background to all this, recall that Bank of America has promised big bonuses to brokers who stay at the combined bank for the next several years—but limited those bonuses to the top earners. The New York Posts today reports some brokers aren’t getting retention bonuses at all, and those garnering less than $1 million in fees are dissatisfied. Brokers also object to the rules about not talking to clients after the brokers leave the firm. Rival brokerages are moving in to hire upset Merrillistas.

We’re told by sources familiar with the situation is a concern over the way the Merrill bonuses are structured. Merrill brokers fear that the retention bonus and annual bonus structure at Bank of America might encourage churning or pressure them into getting clients into products earning more fees for the firm. This kind of policy, coming in a year when clients would have done well by staying out of stocks or even phony cash-equivalents like auction rate securities, would penalize brokers who delivered the most profitable advice to clients.

Merrill’s brokers pride themselves on the loyalty to their customer and believe they are rewarded for this by customers loyalty to them, are worried that the new bonus structure could endanger the Merrill franchise.

“There’s a good chance that Merrill Lynch could lose some of its best brokers, brokers that told clients to get out of the markets,” Charlie Gasparino has said on CNBC. Merrill says it may lose as many as 15% of its brokers, while others say the number could be twice as much.

Why does this matter? Well, in an environment in which Wall Street firms are struggling to find a profit engine now that the IPO market, credit market and M&A market have stalled, brokers are once again at the center of Wall Street.

“The lesson here is that good old-fashioned stockbroking has managed to survive the financial crisis pretty well,” Felix Salmon writes. “Investment bankers have seen their business dry up entirely in many cases, but stockbrokers still have their clients, and those clients are even more concerned about the market than they have been in the past. And in general, the more focused that clients are on the market, the more money the brokers make. So while institutional Wall Street is doing badly, retail-facing Wall Street still seems to be doing OK.”

Merrill’s brokers are worried that Bank of America’s plans may end up killing the retail business by breaking the trust of customers.

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US Bancorp To Raise $6.6 Billion From Treasury Dept

2008-11-03T11:49:00.000-08:00

U.S. Bancorp (USB) will sell the U.S. government $6.6 billion in preferred stock and warrants as the regional bank received preliminary approval from the Treasury Department to participate in the government's $250 billion capital- infusion effort.

If the $6.6 billion had been in hand as of Sept. 30, U.S. Bancorp said its Tier 1 ratio level would have been about 11.4%, not the 8.5% recorded.

U.S. Bancorp - which remained conservative in lending when most other banks were loosening standards and offering mortgages with fewer requirements to compete in the housing boom - said its capital position is solid and it elected to participate in the program to boost its capacity for increased lending activity, invest for future growth and help stimulate the U.S. ecomony.

In unveiling the program last month, the Treasury Department required nine of the nation's largest financial-services companies to sell $125 billion in preferred stock to the government and said the same amount could be bought from other firms on a voluntary basis. Companies have until 5 p.m. EST Nov. 14 to say they want to join the program.

The speculation is that the money, originally billed as a way to foster lending, would be used by recipient banks to buy weaker rivals. The government hasn't discouraged that use for the money.

U.S. Bancorp, which has its largest presence in the West and Midwest, for years has been viewed as a safe haven among banks, cushioned from fluctuations in the economy, such as capital-market and mortgage turbulence, because of its conservative lending practices. While it still ended up with some exposure to bad assets, it is smaller than many other banks that have increased their loan- loss provisions well into the billions.

The relative strength of U.S. Bancorp has earned it a place on the short list of banks with means to pull off a large takeover of a weakened counterpart. Still, even as a number of financial firms have fallen victim to the credit crisis, U.S. Bancorp has yet to express any desire for a large deal.

Shares were recently up 3% at $30.70.

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